The giant Chilean Escondida mine produces more copper than anywhere on earth. Some 1.2m tonnes emerge from the BHP Billiton-run facility each year.智利可观的埃斯孔迪约(Escondida)铜矿的铜产量位列世界第一，这座由必和必拓(BHP Billiton)运营的铜矿每年出产大约120万吨铜。For the largest miners, Escondida also serves as a key measure for world copper output.对大型矿企而言，埃斯孔迪约还是取决于全球铜产量的最重要指标之一。To meet global demand over the next decade, the industry “will have to add the equivalent of a new Escondida every 15 months”, says Jean-Sebastien Jacques, head of copper at Rio Tinto, which owns a minority stake in the mine. First Quantum, a mid-tier copper miner, says if China, India and Brazil reached EU levels of copper use by 2020, it would imply nine new Escondidas.力拓(Rio Tinto)持有人埃斯孔迪约的少数权益，该公司铜业务负责人让-塞巴斯蒂安雅克(Jean-Sebastien Jacques)回应，为符合未来十年全球市场需求，铜矿业“必需每15个月就减少相等于一座埃斯孔迪约铜矿的产量”。
中型铜矿企业First Quantum回应，如果到2020年时中国、印度和巴西的用铜量超过欧盟的水平，那就必须减少9座埃斯孔迪约。Such predictions explain why big UK miners are talking up their growth potential in copper, even though worries over Chinese demand have driven the price of the metal to its lowest since 2010.这类预测说明了为什么英国大型矿企正在大谈自己的铜产量快速增长潜力，尽管眼下对中国市场需求的忧虑已推展铜价降到2010年以来的低位。Both Rio and BHP believe the copper market is oversupplied now but will tighten from 2018, with growing deficits. “The copper story remains very strong,” says Mike Henry, BHP’s president for marketing.力拓和必和必拓指出虽然铜市场目前供应不足，但从2018年起供应将不会严重不足，供需缺口将更加大。
必和必拓营销总裁迈克亨利(Mike Henry)说道：“铜的势头仍然强大。”Some of the UK’s pure-play copper miners are investing heavily in growth. Antofagasta expects to lift annual output from its Chilean mines from 700,000 tonnes last year to 900,000 tonnes by 2018. Kaz Minerals is building two mines in Kazakhstan.英国部分单一业务铜矿商正乘机投资提高产量。
安托法加斯塔(Antofagasta)期望到2018年时，将其智利铜矿的年产量将从2014年的70万吨提高至90万吨。哈萨克矿业(Kaz Minerals)正在哈萨克斯坦建设两座铜矿。For BHP and Rio, copper is especially important now that investments in sectors such as iron ore and coal appear to be coming to an end. Iron ore is heavily linked to Chinese infrastructure construction that is expected eventually to tail off, and coal could be threatened by changing environmental rules. Demand for copper is expected to be steadier: it has a wide range of applications and is forecast to be widely needed as the world’s largest economy shifts towards more consumer-led growth.对必和必拓和力拓来说，鉴于铁矿石及煤炭等领域的投资或许将告一段落，铜矿就显得尤为重要。
铁矿石与中国基础设施建设密切相关，而中国的基础设施预计终会渐渐加热；环保规则的转变则可能会对煤炭构成威胁。铜的市场需求预计将更为平稳：铜的用途很多，随着全球仅次于经济体改向更好地依赖消费来夹住经济快速增长，预计铜将面对普遍的市场需求。
But the complexity and expense of projects means the larger miners may not be in a position to generate a quick acceleration of copper output.但铜矿项目的复杂性和高昂成本意味著，较小的矿企有可能无法很快提升铜产量。Patrick Jones, an analyst at Nomura in London, says: “The major diversified miners all have sizeable copper businesses but they all have predicaments of one kind or another when it comes to their future growth options.”野村(Nomura)派驻伦敦分析师帕特里克琼斯(Patrick Jones)说道：“大型的多元化矿企都享有规模相当可观的铜业务，但说到未来的发展自由选择，它们全都有这样或那样的难题。”Escondida will suffer a dip in output in 2016 as BHP mines lower grade ores. Meanwhile, Bingham Canyon, Rio’s mine in Utah that has produced copper for more than a century, will cut output this year amid rehabilitation work.随着必和必拓铁矿的矿石品位减少，埃斯孔迪约在2016年将经常出现产量上升。
同时，力拓在美国犹他州的宾厄姆峡谷(Bingham Canyon)铜矿今年将因修缮性工作而减产，该铜矿运营已多达一个世纪。Oyu Tolgoi, the other copper mine operated by Rio, has brought more problems. An expected underground phase of the mine has been delayed by a dispute with the Mongolian government. Rio wrote down the value of the project in 2013.力拓运营的另一座铜矿奥尤陶勒垫(Oyu Tolgoi)带给了更加多的问题。因与蒙古国政府产生纠纷，该矿预期中的地下开采阶段早已延期。
力拓在2013年对该项目的价值展开了减计。Rio took a step forward in December when President Barack Obama signed legislation that paves the way to build Resolution, a US copper mine expected to be one of the world’s largest. Rio owns 55 per cent of the project, with BHP owning 45 per cent.去年12月，美国总统巴拉克奥巴马(Barack Obama)签订法案、为Resolution铜矿的建设铺平道路，此举让力拓向前迈向了一步。
这座坐落于美国的铜矿预计将沦为全球仅次于的铜矿之一，力拓享有该项目55%的权益，必和必拓享有45%。Yet obtaining all the permits for Resolution could easily take Rio another five to seven years. “There is much work ahead to complete the regulatory approval process,” cautions Mr Jacques.然而，力拓要想要为Resolution做到全部所需的许可证，很有可能还须要花费5到7年时间。雅克警告说道：“还必须做到大量工作才能走完监管审核程序。”Because receiving approval for mines is so laborious, Rio and others have walked away from some projects, even if the copper resources involved are substantial. Since 2013 Rio and Anglo American have both given up on Pebble, a huge copper deposit in Alaska that is controversial for its potential effect on fisheries, for example.由于提供铁矿许可是如此的费力，力拓等矿企早已退出了一些项目，尽管这些项目牵涉到的铜资源十分相当可观。
比如，自2013年以来，力拓和英美资源集团(Anglo American)皆在Pebble铜矿上打了退堂鼓。这座极大的铜矿坐落于美国阿拉斯加州，因对当地渔场有潜在影响而倍受争议。Another challenge for miners is the expense involved in building mines. Glencore, the world’s third largest copper miner by annual output and larger in copper than any of its diversified rivals, sold its Las Bambas project in 2014 to MMG, a subsidiary of China’s Minmetals, for about $7bn. MMG said in October that the remaining 25 per cent of construction would cost between $2.7bn and $3.2bn.矿企面对的另一个挑战是矿场建设费用。嘉能可(Glencore)是全球以年产量收的第三大铜矿商，其铜产量小于所有多元化竞争对手。
2014年，嘉能可以70亿美元左右的价格，将旗下拉斯邦巴斯(Las Bambas)铜矿出售给中国五矿集团(Minmetals)子公司五矿资源(MMG)。五矿资源在去年10月回应，该项目的建设工作还剩下四分之一，而这部分工作的成本将在27亿到32亿美元之间。Those are the sort of sums that mining companies know shareholders dislike. Glencore is unwilling to build projects and most other miners are trying to矿业公司都告诉，股东们不讨厌看见这么大的支出。
嘉能可不愿建设矿场，其他矿企则大多在希望找寻低成本的研发途径。必和必拓享有澳大利亚的奥林匹克坝(Olympic Dam)铜矿，2012年因有可能必须的费用而退出了一项扩展计划。该公司打算用数年时间测试一种更加廉价的加工方法。它正在斯彭斯(Spence)铜矿展开类似于的尝试。
斯彭斯是坐落于智利的一个规模较小的项目。find lower-cost development routes. BHP, which owns Olympic Dam, an琼斯说道：“所有矿企都对铜很上心，因为它们都指出市场不会在几年后重返供不应求的局面。但它们正在继续执行和资本效益方面尝试更加聪明的作法。
一些矿企跑到了岔路口：它们该不该不断扩大铜产量？它们如何需要更加聪明地做这一点？”Australian mine, abandoned an expansion plan in 2012 because of the likely cost. The company is set to take several years to test an alternative, cheaper processing method. It is doing something similar at Spence, a smaller Chilean project.矿业兴旺时期的告终交易曾令其力拓颇受压制，而必和必拓已回应自己不大可能通过并购来执着快速增长。“All the miners are keen on copper because they all see the market returning to deficit in a few years, but they are trying to be smarter about execution and capital efficiency,” says Mr Jones. “Some of the miners are at a fork in the road: should they grow in copper and how can they do it smarter?”必和必拓行政总裁安德鲁麦肯齐(Andrew Mackenzie)上月回应，“很难想象这类收购活动的报酬能匹敌”必和必拓现有铜矿项目的预期报酬。“我们今天在铜业务上想要指出的是，我们早已享有所有我们想要研发的铜矿项目，尽管过去并非总是如此。
本文来源：JN江南体育-www.kmpgai.com
